Future scenarios for the European railway sector: A methodology based on past trends and a stated preference survey

The strengthening of the railway mode is one of the main policies that can help to achieve more sustainable future mobility. A methodology is presented to estimate future transport demand scenarios over the medium (2030) and long term (2050) considering three trip lengths: urban, regional, and long distance for two trip purposes: work and leisure. The objective of the scenarios is to answer the question: would railways benefit from a 10% drop in car usage? Qualitative techniques have been applied, based on in-depth interviews and focus groups, as well as a stated preference survey where the people sampled answered to different scenarios which included the presence of a new train, with a high level of service, and other possible new modes of transport such as autonomous cars and buses. The results obtained using Best-Worst discrete choice models show that the rail mode could capture a significant part of the demand from the car over all three journey lengths, but especially for long distance, if the new rail mode were introduced.